Price Changes on the Steam Marketplace in CS2: The Impact of the New Update and BUFF163 Restrictions
Recently, there have been numerous in-game (and external) changes that may have affected the situation on the marketplace in various ways. The CS2 item market is extremely dynamic and responds instantly to any related news. Over the past week, there have been many changes, and after some time, let’s analyze the situation and see what’s currently happening on the marketplace.
Killowat Case
On May 24, 2024, an update was released in Counter-Strike 2, which affected skins from the latest case. The developers added a feature allowing the rental of all weapons from the case for seven days at the price of a regular opening. This caused mixed reactions within the community. This decision by VALVE seemed controversial not only among interested parties like traders but also professional players. Alexander “s1mple” Kostylev was excited about the rental possibility and immediately purchased a Cobblestone Collection container worth $2000, only to be disappointed that rentals were only available for items from the Killowat Case. Better read the patch notes next time, Sasha.
On a serious note, no one in the community could understand the developers’ motivation. The owner of Cybershoke servers and CEO of the eponymous team commented on this matter:
“Okay, Google, why did Valve shoot themselves in the foot? Actually, Valve even stole our idea here. On our servers, you can rent skins for 149 rubles since 2020.”
Cloud9 player Sergey “Ax1Le” Rykhtorov said:
“Skin rental is like cringe, another way to bait people into buying something.”
If you don’t understand why this is indeed strange, let us explain. Previously, to try playing with a skin, you bought it on the marketplace and sold it, losing out on the commission. This commission is a significant percentage of Valve’s earnings on Steam. Now you can spend just $2.5, satisfy your desire to play with a weapon from this set, and not return to the marketplace for it. As practice shows, a week is just the period that allows you to enjoy the new skin, and then you get used to it and feel the urge to acquire something new. It would be surprising if Valve develops this story with other cases. It seems like a good promotion during sales or other events, but not more.
The market reacted to this story quite impulsively. Initially, the price of the Killowat Case skyrocketed, but it is now gradually declining and is likely to continue falling. It’s hard to imagine that anyone chose this case as an investment and kept it in large quantities in their inventory, but if you managed to sell a few in the first hours after the update, congratulations.
Conclusion on the first item: Rapid reaction, only the most agile players managed to profit, and it makes no sense to consider this as an investment going forward.
M4A4
In the same update, the price of the counter-terrorists’ rifle with 30 bullets in the magazine was changed. For a long time, only 10-15% of players used this weapon in the game, and accordingly, the skin prices were quite low. Now, the difference between the M4A1-S and the M4A4 is only $100, which should increase the demand for the unsilenced rifle and lead to a rise in skin prices. Unfortunately, the ability to use both devices on the defensive side will not let the prices soar, but some adjustments have already started to occur.
To see how the situation with M4A4 skins has changed, we analyzed the most popular ones. Prices have undoubtedly started to climb, but so far, we are talking about a 10-25 percent increase. This is certainly not bad, but we think this device is still awaiting changes in the future. It makes sense to hold or even invest in M4A4 skins as a long-term investment.
Conclusion: Changes are definitely felt in the marketplace, but for a significant leap, more substantial reasons are needed. The M4A1-S era has lasted too long, and this can be seen as the first step towards its end.
Gamma Doppler Skins
Of course, the update couldn’t be without bugs and significant oversights by the developers. To be fair, it’s worth noting that VALVE quickly responded to the community’s outrage and fixed the situation within 24 hours.
The problem was that the Gamma Doppler skin has a unique green color for which players paid a premium. Such a bright green color is not found on a regular Doppler skin, and obtaining the Gamma version is possible from a more limited pool of cases. After the update, users noticed that their skin had almost entirely lost its green shades and was indistinguishable from the regular blue Phase 1 Doppler. The price difference between these items is quite substantial, and when it comes to a Butterfly Knife, the losses could amount to six-figure sums for the owner. It’s great that VALVE promptly acknowledged the mistake and restored everything before the Gamma Doppler skin market completely crashed.
BUFF163 Restrictions
Moving on to the most significant news related to the most popular site BUFF163, through which the largest deals worth millions of dollars are made. The site is owned by major Chinese traders and is currently the largest or even the “big brother” of the trading business. Just over a week ago, the site announced that they no longer deal with cases, sets, and sticker capsules. This news sparked a lot of discussions, and some began to talk about a price crash for these items since a major market player was refusing to work with them. However, nothing of the sort happened, and the restrictions turned out to be related to strict Chinese laws. No specific information or official comment was obtained, but most likely, these items were banned due to the gambling element. Users have accepted that cases and capsules will have to be processed through other markets, but on May 23, more serious news arrived.
A couple of days ago, BUFF163 required users to conduct all transactions through Asian services Alipay or WeChat. No other bank accounts are accepted anymore, which has become a serious problem for many traders. In reality, it’s not so bad since you can open an Alipay account from abroad, but it will take some effort. Many users have set up their accounts, but the linkage to BUFF163 is still unstable. Looking back, similar restrictions were introduced before but were later lifted. So, it’s too early to write off the largest player in the trading world; we just need to observe and wait for the situation to change.
Many of VALVE’s updates have started to affect the Steam marketplace one way or another, and this can be worrisome. Remembering past restrictions with API keys and inventory privacy, it’s not surprising. However, looking at the developers’ response to the Gamma Doppler skin situation, things become much calmer. It’s clear that VALVE understands their responsibility for their products and monitors community feedback. The most interesting part now is how the situation with case rentals will develop. It will be very surprising if this opportunity extends to other collections. The most intriguing aspect is that it could cause a completely polar reaction in the CS2 skin market. On one hand, why buy items on the marketplace if you can endlessly rent them for $2.5 a week? On the other hand, there will be fewer openings, meaning fewer new items will appear, which could cause a significant price increase.