Predictions for the ESL Pro League Season 20 Groups: A Tournament Where Surprises Are Rare
For most of September, from the 3rd to the 22nd, we’ll witness one of the longest-running Counter-Strike tournaments, which is both loved and hated. Some find it too drawn out, while others appreciate the large number of participants and the double-elimination bracket in the group stage. Many view this format as the most objective, giving a clearer understanding of each team’s form, rather than making conclusions based on a single match. Let’s go over the tournament format before identifying the favorites of each group.
A Quick Look at the Format
Groups:
- 32 teams are divided into 4 groups of 8 participants.
- The upper bracket determines 1st and 2nd place.
- The lower bracket determines 3rd place.
- A Last Chance bracket decides 4th place.
Playoffs:
- The 3rd and 4th place teams from each group play in the first round.
- The 2nd place teams face the winners of the first round.
- The 1st place teams advance directly to the quarterfinals, along with the top teams from the 1st and 2nd rounds of the playoffs.
Group A
- FaZe, Sangal, FlyQuest, Eternal Fire, HEROIC, NIP, Lynn Vision, NAVI
Natus Vincere (NAVI) are the clear favorites here, having reached the finals of the last three major tournaments. Their opponents will likely struggle to challenge them on their way to the finals. Coach B1ad3 has had enough time to refine new strategies for his team. NAVI are known for being well-prepared after breaks, and this time should be no different.
In the fight for first place, NAVI are most likely to face FaZe. It’s still strange to think of FaZe as underdogs, but recent tournaments have forced us to get used to this. FaZe performed well at BLAST Showdown, securing a spot in the fall finals, but it remains unclear whether they’ve addressed the issues that plagued them at IEM Cologne. Along the way, they will likely face Eternal Fire, who have regained form.
The Turkish squad showed strong performances in recent online qualifiers and at BetBoom Dacha, making them serious playoff contenders. However, predicting them over FaZe still seems like a stretch, though it’s a possible outcome.
For the final slot, we expect a tough battle, with HEROIC having the edge. Their main competition will be NIP, whom they face in their first match. However, the Ninjas have lost nearly every recent game and are looking quite weak.
- 1st place – NAVI
- 2nd place – FaZe
- 3rd place – Eternal Fire
- 4th place – HEROIC
Group B
- Spirit, Wildcard, MIBR, 9z, The Mongolz, 3DMAX, KOI, G2
We haven’t seen much of G2 since their second-place finish at IEM Cologne, but we’ve heard a lot of rumors about their star player, NiKo. There are rumors that NiKo has already signed with Falcons and wants to bring m0NESY with him. It will be interesting to see if this situation has affected their preparation. Even if the rumors are true, G2’s roster still has a full season ahead, and their ambitions should drive them to seek a trophy. As such, G2 remain the favorites and continue to be a tough opponent for Team Spirit.
As for Spirit, their star player has awakened and is playing as if he’s in a deathmatch. He can carry the team through the early rounds on his own, but as we’ve said before, we don’t expect them to beat G2. Their playstyles are similar, but in head-to-head encounters, the experience of NiKo and his squad prevails, breaking down Spirit’s game plan.
The Mongolz were on the brink of the playoffs at IEM Cologne and should seize the chance to advance from the group stage again. The format offers plenty of opportunities, and their competitors seem weaker in almost every aspect of the game.
The final spot will likely be contested between KOI and the winner of 9z vs. MIBR. After a disappointing RMR qualifier, KOI look dismal, but the bracket could still give them a clear path to the Last Chance finals.
- 1st place – G2
- 2nd place – Team Spirit
- 3rd place – The Mongolz
- 4th place – 9z
Group C
- MOUZ, Rooster, BIG, Imperial, Complexity, M80, fnatic, Astralis
The clear leader of this group is the two-time defending champion of the tournament, MOUZ. The young team won the trophy in both EPL Seasons 18 and 19 and is a strong contender to make it three in a row.
Second place is harder to call, as there are at least two evenly matched teams in the lower bracket—Complexity and Astralis. Astralis face an interesting challenge in their first match, where they will play against their former teammate, blameF. The ex-captain of Astralis is no longer burdened with leadership duties and has been excelling for fnatic, boasting a 1.30 rating over the last three months. We’re unsure of the outcome, so we’re predicting Complexity for second place based on their current standing.
These three teams will likely take 2nd, 3rd, and 4th places. Since a decision has to be made, we don’t believe fnatic will beat Astralis twice, so we rank the Danes higher. It won’t affect playoff placement, but a prediction error could happen as early as the upper bracket stage.
- 1st place – MOUZ
- 2nd place – Complexity
- 3rd place – Astralis
- 4th place – fnatic
Group D
- Vitality, ATOX, FURIA, Falcons, Liquid, ENCE, RED Canids, Virtus.pro
There shouldn’t be any doubt that Vitality will take first place, especially with ZywOo breezing through the group stage. The team was strong throughout the Cologne tournament, and their winning spirit should crush their opponents even before they step on the server.
The rest of the group is incredibly tight and probably the hardest to predict. Besides Vitality, there are four teams regularly competing in tier-1 tournaments with excellent rosters: FURIA, Falcons, Liquid, and Virtus.pro.
Interestingly, according to the bracket, VP is the second strongest team in this group. However, looking at their recent performances—losing 70% of their matches—it’s hard to believe they’ll make the playoffs, and we’re not backing them to do so. After so many lackluster games, no one remembers their current roster’s comebacks or believes in their success. We’d love to be proven wrong, but it feels like the team is waiting for management intervention and is ready for roster changes. Betting on VP seems reckless at this point.
It will be interesting to see how Liquid have improved and how they fare against well-prepared opponents. We haven’t seen much of them in official matches, but Twistzz has had time to make adjustments based on past results. Even if nothing has changed since IEM Cologne, this Liquid roster should be strong enough to reach the finals.
The FURIA vs. Falcons match is one of the most intriguing opening games of the group stage. The loser will likely face defeat against Vitality. The bracket hasn’t been kind to them, but both teams have strong chances of securing 3rd and 4th places. The NiKo rumors seem to have lifted Falcons’ spirits, and FURIA’s FalleN occasionally delivers spectacular performances. In short, both teams have a good shot at beating VP at any stage, so we expect them to advance to the playoffs.
- 1st place – Vitality
- 2nd place – Liquid
- 3rd place – Falcons
- 4th place – FURIA