Predictions for the ESL Pro League S20 Semifinals: Underdog Matchup and the El Clasico of CS2
The three-week saga of the 20th anniversary season of EPL is nearing its end, with only four teams remaining in the tournament. The semifinal matchups are truly intriguing, as we are guaranteed to see a grand final between an underdog and a favorite, a combination that fans love. Let’s break down each match and provide predictions for the outcomes.
MIBR vs Eternal Fire: A New Milestone
Reaching the top 4 of such a major tournament is a phenomenal result for both of these teams. Both prefer a highly aggressive and active playstyle, so we are undoubtedly in for a spectacular match. This is great news for us as spectators, but it could play a cruel joke on the teams themselves. The likely winner will be the team that can set aside all the emotions and pressure as they stand just one step away from the final.
The Road to the Semifinals
Both teams followed nearly identical paths to the semifinals – they placed second in their groups and easily advanced through the second round of the playoffs. Interestingly, the teams they lost to in the battle for first place in their groups will face each other in the second semifinal. Eternal Fire faced a much stronger opponent in the quarterfinals, and their victory over Vitality certainly gave them a significant morale boost. In a tough match, they managed to neutralize ZywOo and even had chances to close the game 2-0 without going into overtime on the third map. In that game, woxic stepped up at the right moment, delivering one of his best performances in recent times, though the main strength of the team is, of course, XANTARES. His individual play is difficult to counter, and he will undoubtedly be a headache for MIBR in this match.
MIBR had a much easier match in the form of an American derby and easily dispatched M80 in two maps. The main threat for the Brazilians right now is their sniper, saffee, who practically single-handedly dominated that match, boasting a 28:2 kill-to-death ratio at one point.
Map Pool
Looking at the statistics, the teams last faced each other almost a year ago, so those results are irrelevant. However, the map pool is much more telling and current. We are unlikely to see Dust 2 or Ancient in this matchup, and it’s probable that the grand final spot will be contested on Inferno, Nuke, and Anubis. Recalling the Turks’ game on Nuke against Vitality, we could very well witness a full BO3. Anything can happen on the decider, as both teams are comfortable on Anubis and have previously picked it as their map of choice. As we mentioned earlier, this match will likely be more about emotions than skill, making predictions difficult. Nonetheless, the statistics favor the Turks: they have faced stronger opponents in previous stages, and their players are much more experienced than the Brazilians.
Our prediction: MIBR 1:2 Eternal Fire
NAVI vs G2: The Samurai Face Their Kryptonite Again
In 2024, these teams have faced off seven times, with NAVI emerging victorious in every encounter. For NiKo, these matches are a nightmare, as this tag has cost him numerous titles, consistently defeating him in finals since the days of CS2. NAVI broke their losing streak of 2024 in their match against Spirit. Could it finally be G2’s turn? Let’s dive in.
The Road to the Semifinals
Both teams topped their groups, so they each played only one, but very convincing, playoff match. Their opponents were strong, and such dominant victories indicate excellent form and preparation. Yes, G2 stumbled on their own pick against Liquid but then took Nuke and closed the half 11:1. NAVI also faced no issues against the Dragons, neutralizing donk, and even a surging sh1ro wasn’t much of a challenge for them.
The obvious weak point for G2 is their captain, Snax, who completely disappeared on Mirage, securing only two kills. In NAVI, the key player struggling to find his form is the sniper w0nderful, an essential member of the team in terms of firepower. The rest of the rosters are performing their roles well, and it’s unlikely anything will change before the final. Also, the EPL playoffs are being played in a studio with hardly any audience, which benefits G2, as their inexperienced player malbsMd had a rough showing at IEM Cologne 2024. Shooting won’t be the deciding factor in this BO3; instead, tactics will play a pivotal role, where the advantage of coach B1ad3 is undeniable.
Map Pool
Things get interesting here, as both teams have an almost identical map pool, with a win rate of no less than 60% on each map. The only weak spot for NAVI is Inferno, where their win rate has dropped to 50%. But is that really so low? Likely not, and B1ad3, knowing this gap, has undoubtedly worked to address it. Natus Vincere will likely pick Mirage, especially after the Samurai’s collapse on it against Liquid yesterday. The match hasn’t even started, and there’s already concern for Snax on the B site.
The key factor will be the order of bans and picks. Neither team plays Vertigo, and NAVI will likely ban it first, which could give G2 an advantage (unless B1ad3 outsmarts his opponents by banning Inferno, forcing G2 to forgo their usual perma-ban). In general, the mind games will begin at the pick/ban stage, only adding to the intensity of this rivalry. If we disregard all the extra thoughts, we are likely to see Mirage, Inferno, and Nuke. Both teams are comfortable on many maps, making it hard to guess what’s going through the players’ minds or what plan they’ve devised for this series. We believe G2’s form still doesn’t allow them to break their losing streak, as NAVI are also in great individual form right now.
Our prediction: NAVI 2:1 G2