Playoff Predictions for BetBoom Dacha Belgrade. Group Stage Results.
The first half of the tournament in the Serbian capital has concluded, and today the semifinal matches will commence. The event is relatively short, especially considering the prize pool of $500,000. The prize distribution is also quite unusual, as only the teams that advance to the playoffs will receive money. This made progressing to the next stage crucial, as earning $50,000 for 3rd-4th place is not common even at most tier-1 championships. Let’s summarize the group stage results and make predictions for the final part of the tournament.
Group Stage Results
Map Pool – The Main Problem for Virtus.pro
Few doubted the progression of the ESL Pro League S19 winners, MOUZ, just as many believed in the success of Virtus.pro, who were considered favorites for the tournament. VP have repeatedly proven their ability to win championships in similar formats, such as the ESL Challenger. The Russian team has won many similar LAN tournaments and almost always reached the finals. Jami “Jame” Ali’s team should have won the previous BetBoom event, but they let Team Spirit come back in the final from a 2-0 deficit. The revamped Virtus.pro arrived in Belgrade as title contenders but finished only third in their group.
In their first match, they defeated Falcons 2-0 with some difficulty. They then managed to take one of MOUZ’s best maps, Vertigo, but lost convincingly on Dust 2 and Mirage. In the deciding match, they faced zonic’s squad again, who had gained form during the tournament and secured the second spot in Group A. Recently, much of the community has been following Denis “electroNic” Sharipov’s adaptation in the new organization, and so far, he has not met expectations. One of the world’s best riflers is playing with a negative rating and not delivering a worthy performance. Along with the news of his transfer, VALVE made changes to the competitive map pool, removing VP’s best map, Overpass. The team found themselves in a situation where they were left with Nuke (which Jame’s rosters have never played), Vertigo, which electroNic had only played 7 times in official matches before his transfer, and the new map, Dust2. It’s hard to say they feel comfortable on the remaining maps, so the team has a lot of work ahead. There are already rumors in the community about a coach change, but even that is unlikely to radically change the situation. The roster has a lot of work to do, but finding time for full-fledged training in such a busy tournament schedule is unclear. VP’s future looks quite bleak, but Jame’s rosters have often found a way to see the light even after the darkest nights.
BetBoom – In Need of a Coach's Guidance
This team wasn’t supposed to participate in the tournament but ended up spending a few May days at the Dacha due to unforeseen circumstances. Their first match was against MOUZ, and they performed confidently, even having a chance to win. Losing the most crucial rounds, they finished the two maps with scores of 11:13 and 12:16 and moved to the lower bracket. Next was a match against Falcons, which they couldn’t close on Vertigo, and the young team didn’t even manage to show up on the deciding Nuke.
After replacing danistzz with Magnojez, the team improved significantly, but they still haven’t learned to win games. It’s hard to pinpoint a culprit in this situation, so captain Vladislav “nafany” Gorshkov took all the blame. A commendable act, but the team needs an experienced coach who can find the right approach to the young players and instill confidence in them. For now, this roster looks like a stack of good Faceit players, but the problem is that almost every one of them has experience playing at the tier-1 level, and expectations are much higher.
Aurora and MIBR – Still Tier-2
In Group B, the competition for two playoff spots was much lower, and Team Spirit easily met the high expectations of the community. Heroic, MIBR, and Aurora contested the second spot. Aurora had attended several tier-2 LAN events, and it was interesting to see their performance against stronger opponents. The Russian team didn’t win a single map and left the Dacha without showing anything notable. This roster is unlikely to ever reach the tier-1 level, and attending such championships will be their main achievements.
Before BetBoom Dacha Belgrade, the Brazilians flew to Australia and won the ESL Challenger, earning a spot in the 20th season of the ESL Pro League. They defeated Aurora in the final and consolidated their success in Serbia. The team seemed to be on a roll and should have handled Heroic, but they failed to do so twice and left without prizes. The roster looks promising; in their region, they will undoubtedly compete for high places, but they are unlikely to aim for anything more.
Playoff Predictions
Spirit vs. Falcons
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Spirit doesn’t advance past Falcons. Many were concerned that Danil “donk” Kryshkovets’s team, having not participated in major events since the Major, might have lost their competitive edge. However, those worries were unfounded, and even the transition to Dust 2 didn’t hinder the young talent. Team Spirit has developed a game plan focusing on shooting accuracy, and even experienced teams like Falcons struggle against their playstyle. The only way to beat Team Spirit is through superior aim, which an older team like Falcons is unlikely to achieve. Snappi and dupreeh mostly secure their frags through smart positioning, but it’s hard to see them succeeding against donk, Sh1ro, and zont1x. The map pool also favors Team Spirit, with Falcons lacking confidence in any specific map pick. This matchup should conclude in two maps in favor of the Eastern European team. Falcons will, however, be able to report their second semifinal appearance after IEM Katowice 2024 to their investors as a sign of progress.
MOUZ vs. Heroic
This semifinal also lacks intrigue and serves mainly as another serious test for the new Heroic roster. The Dacha is the first tournament for Abdul “degster” Gasanov after a year-long hiatus from OG. We’ve seen one unsuccessful comeback of a CS:GO legend recently, making this decision by the Danish organization seem very risky. During the group stage, the Russian sniper performed quite well and appears to have immediately taken on a leadership role. The roster changes have clearly shaken up the team, signaling that no one is indispensable and that continued effort is necessary. Despite these positive changes, defeating MOUZ in the semifinals is likely beyond their reach. The EPL champions managed to shut down ZywOo, who was performing phenomenally and even earned the MVP title despite his team’s loss in the final. MOUZ is currently one of the most well-prepared teams, and their fundamentals should be enough to surpass Heroic.
Grand Final
There is a high probability we will see these teams in a BO5 showdown, and the format should be a key advantage for MOUZ. As previously mentioned, MOUZ is one of the most well-prepared teams, and their chances of winning 3 out of 5 maps are much higher. Both teams will be strategic in their bans, so the deciding factor could be Dust 2, which Team Spirit should take with their pick. MOUZ likely hasn’t had enough time to prepare for this map, and not capitalizing on this opportunity would be a clear mistake. If the Dragons leave it as their second pick or even the decider, they might not survive until then and could lose 0-3 or 1-3. They can still rely on their shooting skills, but the problem is that MOUZ currently has no weak shooters, and superior aim alone is unlikely to secure a victory.
Predicted Final Standings:
- 3rd-4th Place: Falcons, Heroic – $50,000
- 2nd Place: Team Spirit – $100,000
- 1st Place: MOUZ – $300,000